Response of streamflow to climate change using SWAT model in upper Wangchhu watershed, Bhutan

Name: Saran Pradhan

LCSH: Kasetsart University -- Theses. M.S. (Tropical Forestry) 2018

Classification :.LCCS: SD425

LCSH: Kasetsart University. -- Department of Forestry -- Theses

LCSH: Watershed management -- Bhutan -- Wangchhu watershed

LCSH: Streamflow -- Bhutan -- Wangchhu watershed

LCSH: Climatic changes

Abstract: The objectives of this study were to estimate the streamflow using SWAT model and simulate streamflow under climate change scenario in the Upper Wangchhu Watershed (UWW) in Bhutan. The secondary data which are climate, land use, soil and streamflow data collected from various agencies in Bhutan and other sources were used to setup and launch the SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated using SUFI-2 in SWAT-CUP program. The results from model calibration (NSE = 0.76, R 2 = 0.79, PBIAS = 15.80) and validation (NSE = 0.61, R 2 = 0.66, PBIAS = -5.00) showed that the SWAT model is able to satisfactorily simulate and estimate the streamflow in the UWW area. The calibrated model estimated the average annual streamflow at 752.89 m3 /s while the observed average was 784.77 m3 /s during 2003-2013. The simulation of climate change scenario RCP8.5 by the SWAT model predicted an increase in annual streamflow in 2050 and 2070 compared to 2013 scenario but it was not significantly different. However, the low flows during dry season (January to March) and peak flows during wet season (July to September) were found to be statistically significantly different in streamflow between year 2013, 2050 and 2070 (p<0.05). This study indicate that streamflow will increase in the future by higher rate in wet season and decrease in dry season, and the SWAT model is also able to predict streamflow under the future climate change scenario satisfactorily. Therefore, mitigation measures to address the climate change and variations in streamflow should be taken up in the UWW area. Also, more studies in future need to be carried out to address the uncertainties in the model such as missing data and snowmelt to have better streamflow prediction under variety of climate change scenario.

Kasetsart University. Office of the University Library

Address: Bangkok

Email: tdckulib@ku.ac.th

Name: Naruemol Kaewjampa

Role: Thesis Advisor

Name: Piyapong Tongdeenok

Role: Thesis CO-Advisor

Created: 2018

Modified: 2025-07-09

Issued: 2025-07-09

วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis

application/pdf

URL: https://www.lib.ku.ac.th/KUthesis/2561/saran-pra-all.pdf

CallNumber: SD425 .S27

eng

Spatial: Bhutan Wangchhu watershed

Spatial: Bhutan Wangchhu watershed

DegreeName: Master of Science

Level: Master's Degree

Descipline: Tropical Forestry

Grantor: Kasetsart University

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