Electricity demand and cost of production under the responsibility of the Provincial Electricity Authority A sectoral approach

Name: Saran Kumjinda

LCSH: Kasetsart University -- Dissertations. Ph.D. (Economics) 2020

Classification :.LCCS: HD9696.T35

LCSH: Kasetsart University. -- Department of Economics -- Dissertations

LCSH: Electronic industries -- Thailand

LCSH: Electronic industries -- Forecasting

LCSH: Electronics

LCSH: Prices

Abstract: This research aims to forecast the electricity demand and analyse the cost of production under the responsibility of the PEA to create guidelines for its long-term electricity supply management and administration planning in 2023. The scope of this research involves the investigation of electricity demand under the authority of the PEA area, covering 74 of the 77 provinces in Thailand, excluding the MEA and EGAT. Five sectors are explored, namely residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and non-profit, based on time series data using the Holt-Winters' exponential smoothing forecasting method for the residential, industrial, and non-profit sectors, and ARIMA and ANN for the commercial and agricultural sectors. The cost of electricity production and distribution (or cost of electricity supply) analysis of the five sectors is based on the income statement of the PEA for the year ending 31 December 2016. The electricity sales price per kWh for the five sectors from 1992 to 2016 is obtained using the cost behaviour analysis concept, joint cost allocation calculation in the form of relative sales value, BEP analysis, and sensitivity analysis, respectively. The results of this research indicate that the PEA should formulate three suitable guidelines for management and administration planning. Firstly, the amount of VCs should reflect the change in AVC in all five sectors. Similarly, the management and administration planning guidelines for the TFC should involve an increase in the FCs for all five sectors. According to the guidelines for management and administration planning concerning price, the PEA should reduce the rate charged for all five sectors except the agricultural sector, by formulating a constant price. Implementation of these three guidelines for management and administration planning of the electricity supply will result in the PEA having sufficient electrical energy to meet the increased demand in 2023 for the area under its responsibility.

Kasetsart University. Office of the University Library

Address: Bangkok

Email: tdckulib@ku.ac.th

Name: Sumalee Santipolvut

Role: Thesis Advisor

Name: Rewat Thamma-Apiroam

Role: Thesis CO-Advisor

Created: 2020

Modified: 2025-06-30

Issued: 2025-06-30

วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis

application/pdf

URL: https://www.lib.ku.ac.th/KUthesis/2563/saran-kum-all.pdf

CallNumber: HD9696.T35 .S27

eng

Spatial: Thailand

DegreeName: Doctor of Philosophy

Level: Doctoral Degraee

Descipline: Economics

Grantor: Kasetsart University

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