Abstract:
Background: The incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection is varied depending on multiple factors. Non-cirrhotic treated CHB patients with undetected viral load had the lowest HCC incidence rate. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different HCC surveillance strategies, i.e., semi-annual surveillance, annual surveillance, and non-surveillance, in these patients. Method: Decision tree of 3 different strategies included, semi-annual surveillance, annual surveillance, and non-surveillance, were established to simulate development and management of HCC. Direct medical cost included costs of surveillance and costs of treatment. Health outcomes were determined as life years and quality adjusted life years. Costs and health outcomes were compared as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Result: The total lifetime costs of surveillance per person for HCC diagnosed were 0 THB, 20,709,000 THB, and 41,418,000 THB in the non-surveillance, annual surveillance, and semi-annual surveillance groups, respectively. Using the non-surveillance strategy as a reference, the semi-annual strategy provided an ICERs of 3,912,304 THB/QALY and the annual strategy provided an ICERs of 6,826,371 THB/QALY. Both strategies resulted not cost-effective when compared to using the traditional 160,000 THB per QALYs cost-effectiveness threshold. These findings indicated that HCC surveillance in the very low incidence group is not cost-effective. Conclusion: The standard recommendation of HCC surveillance including abdominal ultrasound and serum alpha-fetoprotein is not cost-effective in non-cirrhotic treated CHB patients.