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Korrakot Phomsoda. Impacts of biofuel subsidy on Thai economy using dynamic CGE model. Doctoral Degree(Engineering). Thammasat University. Thammasat University Library. : Thammasat University, 2021.
Impacts of biofuel subsidy on Thai economy using dynamic CGE model
Name: Korrakot Phomsoda
keyword:
Computable general equilibrium
;
Biofuel
;
Subsidy
Abstract:
This dissertation aims to study the effects of biofuel policy on the Thai economy using a recursive dynamics CGE model. The CGE model consists of a database and a system of equations. The database used in this study is Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), which consists of 92 production sectors, 100 commodities, two primary factors of production, i.e., labor and capital, five institutes, i.e., household, government, saving-investment, change in stock, and rest of the world. The system of equations is based on the behavior of economic agents. The policy examination was set up in three scenarios i.e., an increase in world price import of crude oil, an increase in productivity growth of sugarcane, cassava, and oil palm, and finally, an improvement of biofuel subsidy levy. The scenarios were simulated and shown the results during 2015-2020. The results indicate that the Thai economy is susceptible to oil price change. The increase in crude oil price by 1% and 5% affected economic recession continuously. On the contrary, enhancing the productivity of sugarcane, cassava, and oil palm could expand the economic system. The increase in productivity resulted in reducing biofuel prices and extending the price gap between biofuel and fossil fuels. However, the higher productivity could partially offset the adverse effects caused by rising crude oil prices. For the implementation of subsidy, the results reveal that the increase in biofuel subsidy benefited household income, household consumption, and the total value of employment. In contrast, real GDP, consumer price index, government income, real gross fixed capital formation, and total aggregate output received poor effects. The main discoveries of this dissertation have two issues. The first issue is that the increase in productivity growth of selected agriculture sectors, i.e., sugarcane, cassava, and oil palm, positively affect household income and consumption. The second issue is that the biofuel subsidy policy aims to reduce prices of gasohol and biodiesel, but the government loses its income and budget for investment expenditures. Therefore, the lower investment in the current year has continuously affected capital stock in the next year. Finally, the lower capital stock results in a decrease in total aggregate output and GDP. The policy recommendation is that the government promote productivity improvement to reduce the cost of biofuel production and provide other sources of income to compensate for the loss of budget caused by biofuel subsidy to maintain investment expenditures in the long term
Thammasat University. Thammasat University Library
Address:
BANGKOK
Email:
preserv@tu.ac.th
Name: Mongkut Piantanakulchai
Role:
advisor
Name: Pruettha Nanakorn
Role:
co-advisor
Created:
2021
Modified:
2023-02-17
Issued:
2023-02-17
วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis
application/pdf
eng
DegreeName: Doctor of Philosophy
Level: Doctoral Degree
Descipline: Engineering
Grantor: Thammasat University
©copyrights Thammasat University
RightsAccess:
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Korrakot Phomsoda
| Title | Contributor | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Impacts of biofuel subsidy on Thai economy using dynamic CGE model
มหาวิทยาลัยธรรมศาสตร์ Korrakot Phomsoda | Mongkut Piantanakulchai Pruettha Nanakorn | วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis |
Mongkut Piantanakulchai
Pruettha Nanakorn