Volatility spillover and macroeconomic factors affecting internatinal tourist arrivals in Thailand

ความผันผวนที่เกิดจากการกระจัดกระจายและปัจจัยทางเศรษฐกิจมหภาคที่มีผลต่อนักท่องเที่ยวต่างชาติเข้าประเทศไทย

Name: Lu Liu

ThaSH: Macroeconomics

Classification :.DDC: 339

ThaSH: Thailand -- Description and travel

Abstract: Today, tourism has developed as an important strategy, pillar and general industry to achieve the sustained rapid and stable growth of the world economy. Tourism is a primary source of income for Thailand. In recent years, international tourist arrivals in Thailand have risen yearly, bringing economic benefits and stimulating Thailand’s economic growth. In 2000, the number of tourists in Thailand was only about 9.5 million; the tourism arrivals reached 26.55 million in 2013, an increase of 179 %. The international tourism receipts were $9.94 billion in 2000 and attained $45.74 billion in 2013, the growth in international tourism receipts was around 360%. Therefore, the analysis of tourism demand, which is the crucial significance in establishing tourism development strategies, promoting the international competitiveness of tourism industry, and moving to tourism-led growth country is of vital importance. In this study, we research international tourist arrivals, and we select six countries as the origin countries: China, Korea, Japan, Russia, US and UK. The tourists from these six countries are a significant part of the total international visitors in Thailand. We investigate the macroeconomic factors affecting international tourists and the volatility spillover effect among the origin country’s arrivals in Thailand. First, the macroeconomic factors of origin countries impact on Thailand inbound demand are explored. The macroeconomic factors we considered influence tourist arrivals through tourism-specific price, Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) and unemployment. The empirical research revealed that exchange rate adjusted consumer price index (CPI) was the tourism-specific price, which is a useful index for tourism cost, but the exchange rate itself is not. CCI, according to the studies, high consumer confidence reflects a reduction in uncertainty about the future economy, which means less precautionary savings and increased current consumption. The early research of unemployment have found that wages were lower in areas with higher unemployment in different countries, and unemployment was probably a factor in the demand for tourism. In this research, the co-integration analysis was used to investigate the causal relationship between macroeconomic factors and the international tourist arrivals. The results in this part displayed that the macroeconomic factors CCI have significant influence in visitors from origin countries, and unemployment also influences visitors from origin countries. Second, we analyze whether the tourist arrivals from the six origin countries have volatility spillover effect, and how the volatility spillover effect of the origin countries’ arrivals will affect the tourist arrivals in Thailand. The results reveal that volatility spillover effects exist in visitors from origin countries. Particularly, Korea, Russia, UK, and the US show significant volatility spillover effect in other origin countries.

Chiang Mai University Library

Address: Chiang Mai

Email: cmulibref@cmu.ac.th

Name: Kittawit Autchariyapanitkul

Role: Chairman

Name: Jirakom Sirisrisakulchai

Role: Member

Name: Jianxu Liu

Role: Member

Created: 2017

Modified: 2020-01-04

Issued: 2020-01-04

วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis

application/pdf

CallNumber: Th 339 L926V 2017

eng

DegreeName: Master of Economics

Level: Master's Degree

Descipline: Economics

Grantor: Chiang Mai University

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