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A Study of Probability Model on Occurrence Accident of 10-Wheel Truck Drivers in Thailand

Name: ªÒµÃÕ µÑÇÊÁ

Name: Chatree Tuesom

Organization : ÁËÒÇÔ·ÂÒÅÑÂà·¤â¹âÅÂÕ¾ÃШÍÁà¡ÅéÒ¸¹ºØÃÕ

keyword: Ẻ¨ÓÅͧ¤ÇÒÁ¹èÒ¨Ðà»ç¹¡ÒÃà¡Ô´ÍغѵÔà˵Ø

Abstract: This thesis is an analytical study factors which influence accident occurrence of 10- wheel truck drivers in Thailand. The objective of this study is to develop a mathematical model for predicting driving behaviour and calculating the probability of the occurrence accident. The parameters in this study are sex, age, driving experience, driving time, time of sleeping, health of drivers, medical or nacotic drugs, convenience of driving, and weather conditions. The first part of the analysis shows the statistical data concerned with accidents collected from the government offices. The second part is the development of the stochastic probability model in from of logistic model and discriminant function analysis.From the result of the discriminant function analysis the factors that influence accident occurrencc are perception and reaction time, driving experience, average driving time, health of drivers, and used of medical or narcotic drugs. The discriminant function is shown below: Zscore = -5.4119+1.912(PIVE)-0.1909X3+0.3484X5-0.4013X7+0.8070X8 The logistic model isP (occuil-ence accident) = 1/1+e-[-5.4119+1.9212(PIVE)-0.1909(x3)+0.3484(x5)-0.4013(x7)+0.8070(x8)] The results of this study showed that the inodel had percent correctly predictcd 84.73 pcrcent. One of the important variables in the model is perception and reaction time. When the value is at 3.0 seconds, the probability of accident occurrence is reduces by 8.10 percent.Concerning other variables, driving experience should not be less then 4 years. Average drivingtime should not exceed 4 hours. Good health can reduce the probability of accident occurrence by 5.80 percent. If the drivers do not used medical or narcotic drugs the probability can bereduced by 8.10 pcrcent.

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Address: ¡Ãا෾ÁËÒ¹¤Ã

Email: info.lib@mail.kmutt.ac.th

Name: ¡ØŸ¹ áÂéÁ¾ÅÍÂ

Role: ÍÒ¨ÒÃÂì·Õè»ÃÖ¡ÉÒ

Name: ªÑ ¨ÒµØþԷѡÉì¡ØÅ

Role: ÍÒ¨ÒÃÂì·Õè»ÃÖ¡ÉÒ

Created: 2542

Issued: 2007-01-23

Modified: 2558-05-19

ÇÔ·ÂÒ¹Ô¾¹¸ì/Thesis

ISBN: 9746244043

CallNumber: CVE1119

tha

eng

DegreeName: ÇÔÈÇ¡ÃÃÁÈÒʵÃÁËҺѳ±Ôµ

Level: »ÃÔ­­Òâ·

Descipline: ÇÔÈÇ¡ÃÃÁâ¸Ò

Grantor: ÁËÒÇÔ·ÂÒÅÑÂà·¤â¹âÅÂÕ¾ÃШÍÁà¡ÅéÒ¸¹ºØÃÕ

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