Competition Use of Cassava for Food and Fuel in Thailand : An Economic Assessment

Name: Orathai Chaisinboon

keyword: Ethanol cost

Abstract: Cassava is one of the most important crops in Thailand as it is one of the most feasible feedstock for ethanol production to help meet the target set by the Alternative Energy Development Planning (AEDP) of 9 million liters per day by the year 2022. That target is very ambitious and will need a considerable amount of feed stock to supply ethanol production. So this paper aims to study factors affecting the demand, supply, and price of cassava in Thailand for both food and fuel and to observe it's effect on ethanol production targets. The analysis utilized time-series data for the period 1989-2009 in order to estimate the model parameters by means of the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method. Factors affecting supply of fresh cassava are the yield and the land area cultivated. The cultivated land utilized is also affected by the lagged of both land area cultivated and the price of cassava roots. On the demand side, cassava products such as chips, pellets, and starch are affected by their wholesale price, competitor's price and policy implementation. Factors affecting cassava root price are the wholesale price which itself is affected by the supply whereas factors affecting cassava product price are it's export price, cassava root price and policy implementation The results of this analysis found that in recent years the share of ethanol for transport has been increasing continuously. As a result, a larger share of ethanol was made from cassava. However, this study found this increase of demand for cassava had no significant effect on cassava price variation. This is because this consumption of cassava for ethanol production was less than 0.2% of the total cassava production (2009). Then the model was used for forecasting to assess the impacts of the increased demand for ethanol production for vehicles to meet the Thai government's target on cassava market year 2010-2030. The results indicate that the increasing demand of cassava for ethanol feedstock contributes to increase in cassava demand and also increase in cassava prices while the supply side is increasing according to the growth of cassava production yield with limited plantation area. That makes the farmers happy with a high price but the cassava entrepreneurs might not appreciate a higher feedstock cost. Ethanol production cost is more expensive than the ex-refinery price of gasoline octane 95, and to be competitive with the gasoline, government must continue to subsidize ethanol. However the government's expenditure for ethanol subsidy is lower than the benefits fiom this policy; energy security, better air quality and the supplement to farmer's income through increases in cassava prices. Without cassava use for ethanol fuel the cassava price still is increasing according to the demand fiom China, but the growth is lower than when the ethanol policy is implemented.

King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi. KMUTT Library

Address: BANGKOK

Email: info.lib@mail.kmutt.ac.th

Name: Churnnong Sorapipatana

Role: Advisor

Created: 2011

Modified: 2555-10-31

Issued: 2012-10-31

วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis

application/pdf

CallNumber: JGSEE292

eng

DegreeName: Master of Engineering

Level: Master's Degree

Descipline: Energy Management Technology

Grantor: King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi

©copyrights King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi

ลำดับที่.	ชื่อแฟ้มข้อมูล	ขนาดแฟ้มข้อมูล	จำนวนเข้าถึง	วัน-เวลาเข้าถึงล่าสุด
1	JGSEE292.pdf	2.12 MB	7	2021-06-08 14:42:07
2	JGSEE292ab.pdf	76.77 KB	3	2019-06-21 16:03:22

ใช้เวลา

0.030256 วินาที