ปริศญารัตณ์ สังกะเพศ. Predictability in Atmospheric Models. Doctoral Degree(Mathematics). King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi. KMUTT Library.. : King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, 2552-12-13.
Abstract:
Atmosphere is a dynamical system. An interesting feature of a dynamical system is
predictability. Predictability is an ability to make an accurate forecast which depends on
degree of freedom and uncertainty in the initial condition. The barotropic model and the
shallow water model are often used to test numerical techniques for weather prediction.
In this research, predictability of a spectral barotropic model and a spectral shallow
water model are investigated by using the maximum Lyapunov exponent, finite size
Lyapunov exponent, and Lagrangian structure function. Predictability times of the
spectral barotropic model and the spectral shallow water model are related to resolution
of the models. The finite size Lyapunov exponent gives predictability time similar to
that of the Lagrangian structure function. In addition, the finite size Lyapunov exponent
and the Lagrangian structure function give longer predictability times than that of the
maximum Lyapunov exponent.