ประเมินการใช้นำ้เพื่อการเกษตรในหน้าแล้งจากแบบจำลองการเปลี่ยนแปลงการใช้ที่ดิน กรณีศึกษา : โครงการ ชลประทาน หนองขวัญ ลุ่มแม่น้ำปิงตอนล่าง

Predicting the dry season crop water demand from land use change models. Case study: Nong Khan irrigation project, the lower Mae Ping River basin

Name: หทัยรัตน์ เอี่ยมศิริ

Name: Hathairat Ieamsiri

Organization : มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีพระจอมเกล้าธนบุรี

keyword: Orange Plantation Expansion

; Logistic Regression Model

; Kappa Index of Agreement

; Crop Water Demand

Abstract: One of the most important problems of the Mae Ping River Basin is water scarcity dueto insufficient water distribution. Therefore, it would be usefkl to study the actualagricultural use and forecast the land-use change and water demand for agriculturalneeds in the dry season to help increase water use efficiency. In particular Orangecultivation has become increasingly popular in the basin in the past three years andhundreds of hectares of rice and sugarcane fields have been changed into orangeplantations. The objective of this study was to develop and validate regression modelsalong with the multi - criteria evaluation (MCE) approach to predict spatially orangeplantation expansion. The models were constructed by analyzing explanatory variablesthat significantly affected orange plantation expansion. The explanatory variablesincluded elevation, soil type, distance from water source, distance from edge of currentorange plantations and distance from edge of rice fields. The results, using 2000baseline data to predict the changes in 2001 and 2002, showed that the observed andpredicted results in 2001 were not significantly different in terms of spatial positionalthough less accurate in predicting the extent of the change, and had an overall Kappaindex of agreement value of 0.6. The predicted results of logistic regression and MCEanalysis in 2002 were less accurate in both position and area and the overall Kappaindex value were 0.3 and 0.13, respectively. The logistic regression generated resultsmore consistent with field survey data than the MCE method. However, both methodsprovided acceptable levels of preliminary predictability for land use change at least inthe short term. Additional socio-economic data and data from adjacent areas of the basinwhere more orange plantations are occurring, should improve the predictive power. Thecomparison of crop water demand illustrated that the orange plantations have a higherwater demand than rice fields, about 6,158 myha greater and about 12,342 mvhagreater demand than sugarcane plantations. If increases in orange farming continuewithout better management, water scarcity may become particularly severe in the dry season.

มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีพระจอมเกล้าธนบุรี

Address: กรุงเทพมหานคร

Email: info.lib@mail.kmutt.ac.th

Name: George A. Gale

Role: Advisor

Created: 2545

Issued: 2005-11-11

Modified: 2559-02-01

วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis

ISBN: 9749605195

CallNumber: NRM71

tha

DegreeName: วิทยาศาสตรมหาบัณฑิต

Level: ปริญญาโท

Descipline: การจัดการทรัพยากรชีวภาพ

Grantor: มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีพระจอมเกล้าธนบุรี

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