Abstract:
Since there is an increasing trend in crude oil price , the value of its import to Thailand has been increased consistenily. In addition, as Thailand has been adopted cassava quotas for exporting to the European Union (EU), there is excess supply of cassava and its price is unstable.This thesis aims to study factors determining demand, supply and price of cassava in Thailand using sinr.dtaneous equation system. The analysis employed time-series data during 1981-2000 in order to estimate the model parameters by means of the Two- Stage Least Square method.The result this study shows that factors affecting supply of fresh cassava roots are the cultivated land of cassava roots in current year, fresh cassava roots in previous year, price of cassava roots in previous year, yield of cassava roots(in kilogram per rai) and dummy variable which captured eassava reduction policy.Factors affecting domestic demand for cassava flour in terms of cassava roots are the average Bangkok wholesale price of cassava flour in current year andThailand Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current market price.Factors affecting demand for export of cassava pellets in terms of cassava roots are the average Bangkok wholesale price of cassava pellets in current year, price of corn at Chicago market in the United State and the price of cassava pellets at Rotterdarn Market in Netherlands.Factors affecting the price of cassava roots are the average Bangkok wholesale price of cassava pellets and the supply of fresh cassava roots in current year.Factors affccting the average Bangkok wholesale price of cassava flour are the average Bangkok wholesale price of cas.sava pellets in current year and the f.o.b. price of cassava flour in current year.The forecasts of this study show that between 200 1-2005 the supply of fresh cassava roots, price of cassava roots and the average Bangkok wholesale price of cassava pellets are slightly increase by 0.022864 0.29726 and 0.30542 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, the domestic demand for cassava flour and the export of cassava pellets in terms of cassava roots, in turn, show to decrease by 0.00543 and 0.14238 percent.According to the study, it suggests that cassava is suitable for considering as a raw material for thai-ethanol Foduction. Tn addition, it suggests that the Government should assist farmer by exlcnding eassava markets and improving cassava price. Furthermore, there should be measures to support research on fliel-ethanal production in the long run in such a way as to reduce the cost of flieF-ethanal production and to promote its consumption in the future.